So the impossible has happened – the Donald will be our 45th president. Congrats Donald – you beat back the odds yet again and managed to win the White House. Now, about those promises you made on the campaign trail – you know, all those jobs you promised were coming back? Uhm, how is that’s going so far?
Trump the Negotiator
Let’s get one thing very clear – Donald Trump himself has admitted that his campaign promises aren’t real promises – he’s not some insane nut job who is going to completely destroy America. Sorry, but the so called Mainstream Media, who have vilified the man at every turn for what he said on the campaign trail have it all wrong. He’s a pragmatist first and foremost.
Donald understands deal making – heck, that was the title of his original book, The Art of the Deal. He knows that he won’t get everything he promised on the campaign trail and to be perfectly honest, I think most of his supporters know that too. However, by taking such a maximalist stance on so many issues, he puts himself in a position to cut a deal.
Let me give you an example. Let’s say for example that I want to sell you a luxury apartment in well, let’s say Trump Towers just for the heck of it. Now, I know the market rate for a one bedroom apartment there is say $2.1 million. As a smart negotiator, I’m not going to tell you, my customer that the price is $2.1 million. No, that would be just plain stupid on my part.
You see, I know you’re going to want to bargain on the price and I know that I can’t go down from that $2.1 million rate because that’s what my client, the owner of the apartment wants as a bottom line.
So how do I make a deal? I start higher – maybe even outrageously high. I tell you that this is after all a condo in the building bearing our next president’s name. It’s one of the most prestigious addresses you can get right now. I can’t possibly let it go for less than $3.1 million and even that’s really scraping the bottom. I’m going to get in trouble with my client because he wanted more but hey, I’m trying to do you a favor.
I’ll make it sound like that is the very best I can possibly do and if you can’t afford to spend that much, well then maybe you should be looking elsewhere. I hear there may be something wherever the Clinton Foundation is headquartered…
Of course, I know that’s not the actual price of the condo. I know I have room to negotiate. I’m just not going to tell you that. Ultimately, I’ll back down from that high price and settle on something.
If you squeeze me super hard, I may even let it drop by a mil all the way to the price my client is willing to settle for. But the odds are good that you’ll settle somewhere in between, because, hey, I’m a damn good salesman.
That’s what our new president is like – he made maximalist demands on the campaign trail and now, he is in a strong position to settle somewhere in the middle and get a fair deal for Americans.
But Will Those Jobs Come Back?
Sorry to say this, but probably not. The thing is, it’s not just about the unfair trade practices that some countries engage in. Let’s say for a moment that President Trump was able to push through super high taxes on Chinese imports. This means that all that cheap stuff you buy at Walmart is suddenly going to be pretty pricey.
In theory, by making imported products much more expensive, you are able to goose manufacturing here at home and put more Americans to work. The thing is, modern factories don’t work the same way they did back in the 1970s. Even if more stuff was produced here because the cost was now worthwhile, the reality is that there still wouldn’t be as many jobs as there were.
Well, no, not really. I love asking Alexa if she’s Skynet. She always says she has nothing to do with Skynet and not to worry. But when she seems to have a mind of her own because she hears me or my girlfriend incorrectly, my girlfriend insists on jokingly saying something about being back.
The thing is though, more and more manufacturing jobs are automated. It simply makes sense to pay a robot to do a job because robots don’t get tired, don’t need dental plans and don’t care about working 24 hour shifts. Thus, even if everything we buy at Walmart was made here, it still wouldn’t mean that all those lost jobs will come back.
Where the Jobs Will Be
All is not lost though. Donald has been saying all along that our infrastructure is a disgrace. It’s true. I love to travel and I can tell you that LaGuardia Airport here in New York is a dungeon compared with some of the airports I’ve seen in other parts of the world. There’s simply no excuse for the richest nation on earth having crumbling bridges and roads along with horrible airports.
For at least the next few years, if Donald sticks to what he promised to do, you’ll see a boom in new jobs – just not the manufacturing jobs we all thought were coming back. Instead, we’re going to see lots of new jobs in construction coming back. Kind of the way the FDR managed to put America to work following the Great Depression – by building new infrastructure.
About that Wall
Even Donald has admitted now that it may not end up being the Great Wall of America that he promised. It may end up being more like a border fence. But that’s not a bad thing either – it also gets us some decent jobs building the fence and, in other areas the wall.
No, the old boom jobs that existed after World War II are not coming back. No matter what happens, that era is past. However, that doesn’t mean that we won’t see more jobs under a Trump administration, as long as he does things the right way.